Coffee News Recap, 9 May: Brazil 2025/26 estimates up to 55.7 million bags, WoC Jakarta to host World Brewers Cup from 15 to 17 May & other stories

Every Friday, Perfect Daily Grind rounds up the top coffee industry news from the week. 

Editor’s note

Following largely negative predictions about Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee output, Conab (the National Supply Company) revised its forecast to 55.7 million 60 kg bags, up by 2.7%. This estimate is higher than the total 2024/25 harvest, despite adverse weather, the arabica “off-year”, and a 1.4% reduction in the country’s coffee-producing areas due to pruning.

Conab anticipates that the arabica crop will total around 37 million bags, which would be down 6.6% from last year but still up from the January forecast of 34.7 million bags. As a result, we may see arabica prices steadily come down, but only time will tell.

Next week, two key industry events will take place: the London Coffee Festival and World of Coffee Jakarta. The latter will host the 2025 World Brewers Cup, where some of the world’s best baristas and coffee professionals will compete in the Indonesian capital, home to a thriving café culture that blends tradition and innovation.

Set to become the fastest-growing coffee market in the world over the next few years, Asia leads and redefines many global specialty coffee trends, from premiumisation to beverage customisation. With Luckin Coffee expected to open its first US location in New York City (date still unknown), the Chinese coffee chain is set to give Starbucks – already struggling with declining consumer loyalty – a run for its money, offering Asian-inspired signature drinks at a fraction of the cost of its competitors.

Top stories of the week

• Mon, 5 May – Oatly posts second-best financial results since 2021, positive about earning first annual profit in 2025. The oat milk brand reduced its YoY losses by 73% in 2025 Q1, prompting it to reaffirm its outlook for a first full year of profitable growth. However, it added that “misinformation on health” and ongoing tariffs could stall growth. (Malmö, Sweden)

• Wed, 7 May – Conab revises estimates for Brazil 2025/26 green coffee output up to 55.7 million bags. This figure represents a 7.5% increase from its January estimate and is 2.7% higher than the 2024 crop, primarily due to a stronger robusta harvest. Arabica output is expected to be around 37 million bags, down 6.6% from last year but still up from the January forecast of 34.7 million bags. (Amazonas, Brazil)

• Wed, 7 May – Luckin Coffee to open first US location in New York City. The Chinese coffee chain’s first US store will be in the East Village, although an opening date has not been announced. Luckin’s entry into the US market will pose significant challenges for competitors like Starbucks. (Beijing, China)

• Thu, 8 May – Black Sheep Coffee reports 227% YoY growth for its iced beverage segment after launching matcha and lemonade ranges. The specialty robusta chain said its lemonade sales increased by 315%, post-launch of the Peaches & Cream Matcha and Matcha Lemonades drinks – signifying the mass appeal of iced and matcha-flavoured beverages. (London, UK)

• Fri, 9 May – World of Coffee Jakarta to host 2025 World Brewers Cup from 15 to 17 May. The competition will take place at the second WoC Asia event, which will also feature the Roaster and Producer Villages, cupping rooms, and SCA lecture series. (Jakarta, Indonesia)

Industry news

• Mon, 5 May – Black Rifle Coffee Company posts significant losses for 2025 Q1. Net revenue decreased 8.6% to US $90 million compared to US $98.4 million in 2024 Q1. Wholesale revenue decreased 6% to US $56.8 million from US $60.4 million in the same period last year. The company asserts that its distribution partnership with KDP will support further growth, but that tariffs will also have an impact. (Salt Lake City, Utah, US)

• Tue, 6 May – Fairtrade launches on-demand living income price tool for coffee. LIRP on Demand is designed to help coffee companies calculate living income reference prices for producers in their supply chains within three to six months with annual inflation adjustments for up to four years. (Bonn, Germany)

• Tue, 6 May – Cooks Coffee will open a franchise for Esquires Coffee stores in India. New Zealand’s Cooks Coffee signed a master franchise agreement with Sterling Coffee House to expand into India’s thriving coffee market. The company also plans to triple its Esquires Coffee footprint in the UK and Ireland by 2034. (Auckland, New Zealand)

• Tue, 6 May – South Korea’s Mega Coffee records 55% increase in operating profit. The company’s franchise model and low pricing models are driving profits, but it recently announced that it will raise menu prices, citing rising global coffee costs and a weaker won. (Seoul, South Korea)

• Wed, 7 May – Saudi coffee chain Half Million plans Iraq expansion. Founded in 2018, Half Million operates 65 stores in Saudi Arabia and one in London, UK. The Baghdad, Iraq Mall store will open in Q4 2025, making Half Million the second Saudi-branded coffee chain in the country. (Riyadh, Saudi Arabia)

• Wed, 7 May – Dutch Bros posts 29% revenue growth and same-store sales gains. The Oregon drive-thru chain opened 30 new shops in Q1, driving revenue up 29% to US $355.2 million, system same-shop sales growth of 4.7% and company-operated growth of 6.9%. (Grants Pass, Oregon, US)

• Thu, 8 May – McDonald’s to trial CosMc’s beverages on core menus. The fast food chain will test CosMc’s espresso-based and custom-blended drinks, including Churro Shaken Espresso and Fruity Popping Boba, at select US restaurants in H2 2025, partnering with franchisees to integrate the drinks into its standard menus and boost beverage profitability. (Chicago, Illinois, United States)

• Thu, 8 May – Jollibee Foods Corp rebrands as Jollibee Group to unite global portfolio. The group operates over 9,750 outlets across 19 brands, including Compose Coffee, Highlands Coffee, and The Coffee Bean & Tea Leaf. The café segment now represents 52% of Jollibee’s network. (Manila, Philippines)

• Thu, 8 May – Brazil adopts Coffee Value Assessment as national specialty coffee standard. BSCA and SCA signed an MoU to implement CVA nationwide, making it Brazil’s official protocol for evaluating specialty coffee. The partnership also expands SCA Education in Brazil through joint training and certification programmes. (Varginha, Brazil)

• Fri, 9 May – JDE Peet’s on track for positive 2025 outlook and proposes Rob de Groot board appointment. The most recent interim update shows Q1 volumes rebounded strongly since March, with disciplined pricing offsetting 28% higher green bean costs. The group also discontinued the roll-out of its L’OR Barista machines in the US, and transferred the management of the L’OR capsules business in the US to Peet’s. Rob de Groot, ex-Reckitt Benckiser exec, joins as non-executive pending AGM approval. (Amsterdam, The Netherlands)

• Fri, 9 May – Swiss Water reports 61% revenue growth in Q1. The decaf processor’s processed volumes rose 6%, revenue reached CA $62.3 million, and gross profit hit CA $7.3 million, representing an increase of 42%. (Vancouver BC, Canada)

• Fri, 9 May – Ari Huecherig appointed sales and partner manager at Dalla Corte UK & Ireland. Huecherig has over 10 years’ experience across cafés, training, operations, and distribution. She joins the Italian coffee equipment brand to leverage her technical expertise and relationship-building skills in the new role. (St Albans, UK)

• Fri, 9 May – Matthew Algie becomes official coffee supplier to Scottish ferry firm CalMac. The Glaswegian roaster will serve coffee across 13 CalMac vessels and one onshore Coffee Cabin, providing passengers with more than 500,000 cups a year. (Glasgow, Scotland)

New launch

• Mon, 5 May – Starbucks will roll out home-compostable takeaway cups across Europe. The cups and lids, designed with Transcend Packaging, Qwarzo® and Metsä Board, are available in ten European countries, including Italy, Germany, France, Sweden, Switzerland, Austria, Spain, Portugal, and Hungary, before coming to the UK and Ireland later this year. (Seattle, Washington, US)

• Mon, 5 May – Paddy & Scott’s supplies coffee for TUI flights from the UK and Ireland. The Ipswich roaster, which provides care packs to girls in African coffee-growing communities, created the new Adventure Coffee blend specifically for TUI, available in cappuccino and americano brew bags. (Ipswich, UK)

• Mon, 5 May – Spain’s Santagloria plans to open 50 stores in Mexico over the next five years. Existing franchise licensee Marcas INDEF will support the Spanish bakery chain’s expansion plans, with the first store to open before the end of 2025. (Madrid, Spain)

• Tue, 6 May – Onyx Coffee Lab launches Barista Provisions beverage powders. The specialty coffee roaster’s new ready-to-use beverage powders include Chai Latte, Golden Milk Latte, Matcha Latte, Onyx Delight (a blend of honey, vanilla, and cinnamon), and Sipping Chocolate editions, which are available as retail and wholesale products. (Arkansas, US)

• Tue, 6 May – Zirobio manufactures pencil lead made from spent coffee grounds. The new Grind Z pencil features lead made from coffee grounds and binding agents instead of traditional graphite. (Milan, Italy)

• Wed, 7 May – Latvia’s Kalve Coffee opens first store in Estonia. Following its IPO in December 2024, the roaster plans to open a total of three sites in the Estonian capital and debut in Lithuania. (Riga, Latvia)

• Wed, 7 May – Crow-shaped moka pot launches on Kickstarter. The Crowka Pot, a stainless steel moka pot shaped like a crow, has surpassed its US $8,000 crowdfunding goal with weeks to spare. (North Carolina, US)

• Wed, 7 May – Orea to launch Z1 zero-bypass brewer at pop-up event. The brand will debut its latest brewer at an event coinciding with the London Coffee Festival from 15 to 17 May. The Z1 will be available online on 20 May. (London, UK)

• Thu, 8 May – Rancilio Specialty partners with Tonino Lamborghini on custom RS1 espresso machine. The limited-edition matte black RS1 features the iconic Lamborghini bull logo and branding. The machine is currently being displayed and used at Tonio Lamborghini’s Rosso Caffè coffee shop concept. (Milan, Italy)

• Thu, 8 May – Ukraine’s Lviv Croissants launches in South Korea. Following launches in Europe and the US, the Ukrainian bakery chain opened a 1,200 sq ft store in Seoul, featuring a menu catering to local taste preferences and food and beverage trends. (Odessa, Ukraine)

• Fri, 9 May – RAVE launches Strong AF blend as home compostable capsules. The coffee is the roaster’s darkest roast to date, marketing it as “only for the brave”. (Cirencester, United Kingdom)

• Fri, 9 May – Stumptown launches coffee bags made with 30% post-consumer recycled materials. Stumptown’s new bags utilise at least 30% PCR material in a lighter design, featuring resealable tape and a QR code for sourcing and brewing information. The packaging will debut on the limited-edition Vivid Bloom, a blend of Rwandan and Colombian coffees. (Portland, Oregon, US)

• Fri, 9 May – BRITA Professional launches remote iQ Meter. The brand’s new meter enables businesses to monitor and manage their filters in real time remotely, ensuring precise filter usage without disrupting daily operations. (Taunusstein, Germany)

• Fri, 9 May – MiiR launches exclusive hand grinder on Amazon. The New Standard manual grinder has a 45g-capacity hopper and six adjustable grind size settings. (Seattle, Washington, US)

Milestone

• Tue, 6 May – Pret A Manger promotes Clare Clough to UK & Europe Managing Director. Clough has served as the coffee and food-to-go chain’s UK Managing Director for over six years, and will now oversee an additional 100 stores across mainland Europe. (London, UK)

• Wed, 7 May – Fair Trade USA appoints Felipe Arango as new CEO. Arango joined the non-profit as Chief Operating Officer in December 2023 and has held the post of interim CEO since Paul Rice stepped down at the end of 2024 after 26 years. (Oakland, California, US)

• Fri, 9 May – Imunika becomes the first and only mushroom coffee brand selected for Bean Box. The functional specialty coffee brand co-ferments its beans with an exclusive beta-glucan mushroom compound. Imunika’s Papua New Guinea single origin is available on Bean Box’s subscription platform. (Seattle, Washington, US)

Trade & production

• Fri, 9 May – Regenagri launches updated regenerative agriculture standards. The global regenerative agriculture programme launched several new and updated standards, including its Content Standard, CoC Food and Textile standards, and Claims Requirements with clearer chain-of-custody, audit and marketing guidelines, and new technical guidance documents. (London, United Kingdom)

Research

• Mon, 5 May – New report suggests drones can reduce operational costs on coffee farms by up to 70%. According to data from DJI, using drones to apply pesticides, fungicides, and foliar fertilisers helped reduce operational costs for Brazilian coffee producers by 70% compared to manual spraying and 50% compared to tractor spraying. (Shenzhen, China)

Events & competitions

• Mon, 5 May – Coffee Coalition for Racial Equity honours Black coffee professionals at second First Sip event and awards. The CCRE awarded BLK & Bold for Excellence in Coffee Leadership, Keith Hawkins for Local Hero, and Martell Mason for Emerging Voices in Coffee. The nonprofit organisation is also preparing to launch a new leadership development programme to support people of colour in the coffee industry. (Atlanta, Georgia, US)

• Wed, 7 May – La Cimbali debuts at NAMA Show 2025 with fully-automatic machines. The event, which is one of the most important convenience service trade shows, runs until 9 May at the Las Vegas Convention Center. La Cimbali is exhibiting the S15, S-Lite, S20 Fresh Brew machines, ideal for self-service environments. (Milan, Italy)

• Wed, 7 May – Royal Coffee announces second annual Development Stage symposium. The event will run from 12 to 13 September at The Crown in Oakland, California, gathering industry innovators and experts for educational sessions, tastings, and workshops. (Oakland, California, US)

• Thu, 8 May – Barista League Latin America debuts in Guadalajara. Twenty regional baristas will compete head-to-head at C3 Stage, joined by six special guest judges, a curated Brew Bar and partners including Oatly, Toddy, and Rancilio for games, challenges, and prizes in a one-night event. (Guadalajara, Mexico)

• Fri, 9 May – London Coffee Festival to return from 15 to 18 May. Alongside the Roasters Village, Brew School, and Latte Art Live, the event will host the Coffee Masters competition, where 16 baristas will showcase their skills across a range of disciplines. (London, UK)

• Fri, 9 May – Sproud to sponsor Latte Art Live throwdowns at London Coffee Festival. The alternative milk brand will also host the Zero Vision Challenge, using its new Barista Zero range. (Malmo, Sweden)

• Fri, 9 May – Barista Attitude to showcase Storm Multiboiler at London Coffee Festival. Throughout the four-day event, the coffee equipment manufacturer will host live demos and interactive brewing sessions with barista champions. (Treviso, Italy)

Here are a few coffee news stories from previous weeks that you might find interesting. Take a look:

• Mon, 28 Apr – Nestlé to invest additional US $75 million in southern Vietnam Tri An facility. The factory is the company’s only site that produces its full range of Nescafé, Nescafé Dolce Gusto, Nespresso, Blue Bottle, and Starbucks brands. It is also the largest global producer of decaf Nestlé products. (Dong Nai, Vietnam)

• Wed, 30 Apr – YouTubers launch Rodd’s Iced Coffee in UK supermarkets. YouTube content creators Will Lenney (WillNE) and James Marriott launched the iced RTD coffee brand in Sainsbury’s stores. The range includes 100% Colombian arabica cold brew oat latte, vanilla matcha latte, and waffle oat latte. (London, UK)

Photo credits: Specialty Coffee Association, World Coffee Championships, Onyx Coffee Lab, The Barista League

Sign up to our weekly coffee news recap to get a summary of all the biggest stories in the sector, delivered straight to your inbox every Monday.

Want to keep up with current affairs in the coffee industry? Check out last week’s coffee news stories and make sure to read the latest Coffee Intelligence News & Opinion piece about why India’s coffee market is thriving.