Coffee News Recap, 25 Sep: Arabica prices drop sharply to three-month low, Greggs continues to overtake Costa as UK’s biggest coffee chain & other stories

Every Friday, Perfect Daily Grind rounds up the top coffee industry news from the week. 

Editor’s note

Arabica prices have fallen sharply this month. Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest is on track to hit a record 71.9 million 60kg bags, according to the USDA, a 14% rise on the previous year, with arabica output alone forecast to jump 25% to 47.5 million bags.

This scale of supply pushed arabica futures to a three-month low this week, and StoneX Specialty Coffee now expects the global coffee market to swing into a 10-million-bag surplus in 2026, up from 1.8 million bags in 2025. A strong El Niño could complicate the picture, though. Changes in rainfall and temperature threaten to disrupt flowering and ripening in Brazil’s key growing regions, and speculators are already positioning for more volatility.

UK consumers show little sign of feeling the strain. New research from the British Coffee Association puts daily consumption at 103 million cups, up from 98 million in 2018, with growth led by 18-34-year-olds. This group now drinks more coffee than the over-55s for the first time, averaging 1.9 cups a day against 1.7, and pays more for it too: around £4 a cup, compared with £3.20.

As Brazil exports this season’s harvest, the question is whether cheaper coffee reaches UK menus before this new generation of drinkers gets used to paying more.

Top stories of the week

• Mon, 21 Sep – Greggs continues to overtake Costa Coffee as the UK’s biggest coffee chain. Data from Allegra World Coffee Portal’s Project Café UK 2026 reports Greggs at 2,737 outlets, narrowly ahead of Costa Coffee at 2,707. The shift comes as consumers increasingly visit non-traditional coffee operators alongside dedicated coffee chains, with value becoming an important factor in purchasing decisions. (London, UK)

• Tue, 22 Sep – Nestlé says it will continue Russia operations despite the Kremlin seizing assets. Nestle has six factories in Russia, some of which manufacture coffee products. The company’s Russia subsidiary generated sales of about 2 billion Swiss francs (US$2.4 billion) in Russia in 2021, the last year it released figures, accounting for around 2% of total group sales. (Moscow, Russia)

• Tue, 22 Sep – Coffee prices fall sharply, post three-month lows. Estimated global surpluses, beneficial growing conditions in Brazil and Vietnam, and rising exports from Brazil have been bearish for arabica and robusta prices. (New York City, New York, US)

• Wed, 23 Sep – The Philippines indefinitely suspends exports of fresh ube. The country’s Department of Agriculture says the move is to secure planting material while the country works to increase domestic production. Ube has become a popular ingredient and flavour trend worldwide, including in coffee shops. (Manila, Philippines)

• Wed, 23 Sep – Jollibee Group sells stake in Highlands Coffee. The foodservice group previously owned 60% of the Vietnamese coffee chain. Jollibee will sell 11% of its stake for US$88m, ceding majority control to Viet Thai International Jsc. This reportedly values Highlands Coffee at around US$800m. (Manila, Philippines)

• Thu, 24 Sep – UK now drinks 103 million cups of coffee every day, says British Coffee Association. Two-thirds of the UK drinks coffee every day, with 29% consuming three or more cups daily. For the first time, 18- 34-year-olds report drinking more coffee than those aged over 55, at 1.9 cups compared with 1.7 cups per day. (London, UK)

• Fri, 25 Sep – Conab revises Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest estimate upwards to its highest on record. The agricultural company now estimates the total harvest at 67.6 million 60kg bags, an increase of over 19% on the 2025/26 figures. The arabica crop is now estimated at 48.2 million bags, up 34.8% on 2025/26, but below the record crops seen in 2018 and 2020. Robusta output is estimated at 19.4 million bags, a 6.6% decline from last year’s record. (Sao Paulo, Brazil)

• Fri, 25 Sep – Starbucks to close 250 North American stores by end of September 2026. Mike Grams, Starbucks’s chief operating officer, said the affected stores are either underperforming financially or falling short on service standards. This is the second wave of closures in a year, part of the company’s broader Back to Starbucks turnaround plan, which includes retrofitting stores across its portfolio. (Seattle, Washington, US)

• Fri, 25 Sep – US private equity fund Lone Star reportedly considering Evoca sale. Lone Star is reportedly weighing up a debt restructuring or sale of Evoca, the Italian coffee and vending equipment maker behind the Gaggia brand. Andrea Zocchi, Evoca’s chief executive, told reporters that several parties have put forward bids that could value the company at $1.7bn. (Milan, Italy)

Industry news

• Mon, 21 Sep – Starbucks to open new technology hub in Chennai, India. The hub is expected to hire about 800 technology professionals in the initial phase, and staff will work closely with Starbucks’ technology and operational facilities in the US. (Chennai, India)

• Mon, 21 Sep – UNDP calls for urgent investments in West and Central Africa for anticipatory actions against El Niño impact. The United Nations Development Programme warns that the 2026/27 El Niño event is expanding risk areas for rainfall deficits, occurring against the backdrop of one of the world’s most severe conflict-driven humanitarian crises. (Dakar, Senegal)

• Mon, 21 Sep – SEB Professional Beverage names William Yates as Senior Vice President Commercial. William Yates has spent more than a decade with Groupe SEB, most recently serving as VP of South East Asia and VP of Marketing for the Asia Pacific region, based in Hong Kong. In his new role, William Yates will lead both the commercial and market service functions across the WMF, Schaerer, Curtis, La San Marco, and Zummo brands. (Écully, France)

• Tue, 22 Sep – Specialty Coffee Association invests US$1m in UC Davis College of Engineering Coffee Science fellowship. Funding will provide ongoing support for graduate coffee research and expand opportunities for researchers and international scholars. (Irvine, California, US)

• Tue, 22 Sep – Massimo Zanetti Beverage Group closes H1 2026 with revenue of €693m, up 15%. The company aims to reach €1.7bn in revenue and significantly increase profitability over the next five years. (Treviso, Italy)

• Tue, 22 Sep – Louis Dreyfus reports H1 2026 financial results. The company reported net sales of US$26.8bn, supported by a 2.7% increase in volumes shipped year on year, which the group says reflects the resilience of its diversified business portfolio, supported by its global footprint and risk management approach. (Rotterdam, Netherlands)

• Wed, 23 Sep – Knoops CEO steps down after more than three years in the role. William Gordon-Harris joined the company in 2019 and oversaw significant growth and international expansion. The company has not yet made an official announcement of the new CE. (London, UK)

• Wed, 23 Sep – Café Imports becomes 100% employee-owned. The 33-year-old Minneapolis-based green coffee importer announced that it is 100% employee-owned through its Employee Stock Ownership Plan. The company has 68 employees based across four offices and hailing from 17 countries and regions. (Minneapolis, Minnesota, US)

• Thu, 24 Sep – Sustainable Coffee Challenge introduces new position paper, “Coffee resilience: Building a shared foundation for a collaborative place-based investment”. The paper establishes a common basis to accelerate coordinated action and investment across coffee-producing regions. It introduces a shared definition, a practical resilience framework, and a vision for what resilient coffee-producing landscapes should look like. The paper also introduces a Coffee Resilience Matrix that aims to increase resilience across farms, farming households, and production areas. (New York City, New York, US)

• Fri, 25 Sep – Swiss Water Decaffeinated Coffee announces US$4.4m investment to expand production capabilities. The company says this will increase production volume by 15% from its current capacity. Construction is expected to start in Q1 2027, with commercial operations expected by July 2027. (Vancouver BC, Canada)

New launch

• Mon, 21 Sep – Tim Hortons and Adidas collaborate to celebrate National Coffee Day. The Tims Run Club collection includes a running-inspired lineup of Adidas footwear, apparel, and accessories featuring Tims signature coffee and cream tones and Tims Run graphics. (Toronto, Canada)

• Mon, 21 Sep – REPA Middle East partners with Cimbali Group to launch new preventive maintenance kits. REPA, which distributes Cimbali’s original parts in the Middle East, has launched preventive maintenance kits for LaCimbali, Faema, and Casadio machines. (Dubai, UAE)

• Mon, 21 Sep – La Colombe launches RTD matcha lineup. The range includes lactose-free whole milk from Michigan with single-origin Japanese matcha. Flavours include Everyday Matcha, Strawberry, and Vanilla. (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, US)

• Tue, 22 Sep – Joe & The Juice expands its European presence with Spain debut. This marks the chain’s fourth European market in 2026. During the first half of the year, it opened stores in Greece, Ireland, and Monaco. (Copenhagen, Denmark)

• Wed, 23 Sep – Inaugural “Raise Your Cup” campaign to launch on 1 October 2026. The campaign will spotlight 15 women working in coffee and cocoa production. Across 15 days, campaign partners, including traders, distributors, retail cafés, and brands, will share the stories of these women in their own words and native languages. (Washington DC, USA)

• Wed, 23 Sep – La Marzocco opens new store in Thailand. The new Bangkok branch aims to create a strong local foundation to provide technical support and education, and connect more closely with the local specialty coffee community. (Bangkok, Thailand)

• Thu, 24 Sep – RAVE Coffee launches chocolate-coffee advent calendar for the 2026 holidays. Featuring eight small-batch chocolate bars, including new flavours like Coffee Croissant Truffle, Tiramisu Truffle, Maple Coffee Caramel Truffle, and Cinnamon Coffee Mousse Truffle, the calendar will be available from mid-October. (Cirencester, UK)

• Thu, 24 Sep – Lavazza launches its first US loyalty programme. My Lavazza members earn points, or “Beans”, through online purchases, authorised retail partners, subscriptions, and select brand activities. (West Chester, Pennsylvania, US)

• Fri, 25 Sep – Go Get Em Tiger partners with producers to roast at origin. The LA roaster is working with producers to develop roast profiles. It plans to move 20% of its total roasting to origin by the end of 2026 and 70% by the end of 2027. (Los Angeles, California, US)

• Fri, 25 Sep – Kerry to open new coffee extraction facility in Pennsylvania. The company says its new site expands extraction capacity and introduces advanced manufacturing technology to produce consistent, high-quality coffee solutions. Kerry will invite visitors to tour the facility on 30 September. (Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, US)

• Fri, 25 Sep – Hario launches two new cold brew tea bottles in the US. The two new designs for the Cold Brew Tea Wine Bottle “Aya” Series, Cherry Blossom Blizzard and Wisteria, are inspired by traditional Japanese aesthetics. The bottle is made from HARIO’s proprietary heatproof glass and polypropylene strainer. (El Segundo, California, US)

Milestone

• Mon, 21 Sep – Coffee app Brewtifi achieves a €1.6m valuation in one year since launch. The investment round was led by Mălin Ștefănescu of TechAngels and Radu Savopol, founder of 5 to Go, Romania’s largest coffee chain. The app has more than 20,000 users, 8,500 specialty coffee shops, and 180 roasteries enrolled on its platform. (Voluntari, Romania)

• Tue, 22 Sep – kWh Coffee closes fully-backed equity round and secures Great Ideas grant. The company roasts entirely on electric. Funding will be used to launch a new end-to-end roasting-as-a-service model that lets businesses compare green coffees online, pull per-kilo Scope 3 emissions data for their reporting, and manage costs. The company has also appointed Laurence Beardmore, Q grader and former President of York & North Yorkshire Chamber of Commerce, as Chair. (York, UK)

Trade & production

• Mon, 21 Sep – Arabica coffee harvest is 99% complete in Brazil’s Cerrado Mineiro region. Expocacer reports that 90% of the harvest has already been processed, showing an average yield of 455 liters per 60kg bag of processed coffee – one of the best results in recent years. (Sao Paulo, Brazil)

• Wed, 23 Sep – Rainforest Alliance expects to certify 80,000 ha under new regenerative agriculture certification. According to Yuri Feres, Rainforest Alliance’s national director for Brazil, this would correspond to an expected output of 1.6 million 60kg bags. (Sao Paulo, Brazil)

Research

• Mon, 21 Sep – De’Longhi’s Signature Order Index maps coffee habits across 35 European cities. With data collected from over 3,000 coffee drinkers across the UK, France, and Germany, De’Longhi’s Signature Order Index reveals how differently Europe drinks coffee and how coffee is tied to local habits and city identity. The latte was the UK’s favourite drink, while Germany preferred the cappuccino. Espresso is favoured in France. (Paris, France)

• Mon, 21 Sep – Government-funded solar-powered coffee roasting experiment in New Mexico points toward a novel possibility in commercial roasting. The research explored the potential of retrofitting existing drum roasters to use stored solar energy for heat inside the roasting drum. The system was recently tested at Sandia National Laboratories with Albuquerque roaster Michael Thomas Coffee, using photovoltaic energy stored as heat in a bed of rocks, then releasing that heat into the roasting drum. (Albuquerque, New Mexico, US)

Events & competitions

• Mon, 21 Sep – Accademia del Caffè Espresso kicks off Liaison Cupping series. Participants received cupping kits for the first virtual sessions, with coffees provided by IHCAFE in Honduras and Anacafé in Guatemala. The series aims to provide Italian roasters with a platform to taste and discuss coffees with support from industry professionals in producing countries. (Florence, Italy)

• Mon, 21 Sep – Budapest Coffee Week begins. Running until 27 September across more than 70 coffee shops, roasters, and special event venues in the Hungarian capital, Budapest Coffee Week highlights the best of the city’s specialty coffee scene. The event is hosting over 30 workshops, coffee tastings, behind-the-scenes experiences, and interactive sessions. (Budapest, Hungary)

• Tue, 22 Sep – SIGEP World aims to double number of top buyers at upcoming event. The 48th edition of SIGEP World by Italian Exhibition Group will be held from 23 to 27 January at Rimini Expo Center in Italy. At the event, IEG aims to double the number of top buyers from 502 in 2026 to over a 1,000 in 2027. Vietnam has been announced as the guest country for the event, which will host seven Italian Coffee Championships. (Rimini, Italy)

• Wed, 23 Sep – Slow Coffee Festival 2026 to take place from 25 to 27 September. The tenth edition of the Slow Coffee Festival will take place at Romexpo, featuring 145 exhibitors from 24 countries, bringing together producers, roasters, professionals, and coffee lovers for Green Connect, competitions, tastings, workshops, and more. (Bucharest, Romania)

• Thu, 24 Sep – Better Hospitality campaign set to launch on 28 September in London. Better Hospitality, a new campaign from Be Inclusive Hospitality, aims to build a fairer, stronger, more inclusive industry through better workplaces. Bringing together sector-wide research, leading hospitality employers, and six practical priorities, Better Hospitality will show businesses how they can turn workplace insight into better employee outcomes. (London, UK)

• Thu, 24 Sep – 16th edition of Terra Madre Salone del Gusto take places in Turin. Organised by Slow Food International with the City of Turin and the Piedmont Region, the event explores this year’s theme of biodiversity, including cultural diversity in food. More than 600 producers from Italy and around the world will showcase their products at a large open-air market through the city’s streets and squares. (Turin, Italy)

• Thu, 24 Sep – Asia Coffee Shop Supply Chain Exhibition 2027 to run from 4 to 6 March. The show will include hundreds of regional and international exhibitors from coffee-producing and equipment-manufacturing countries, showcasing the latest innovations and products. Supporting activities will include industry summits, targeted business matchmaking, cupping workshops, barista demonstrations, and product launches. (Guangzhou, China)

• Fri, 25 Sep – GCP10 Anniversary Celebration to take place on 30 September in Geneva. The event, part of Geneva International Coffee Week and taking place following the International Coffee Organisation meeting in Geneva and ahead of the Swiss Coffee Trade Association’s Annual Forum in Montreux, will bring together over 200 coffee professionals from across the supply chain. Attendees, including representatives from COOMAP, JDE Peet’s, Nestlé, Volcafé, IDH, and the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) will discuss how collaboration is supporting the coffee industry and what is needed to accelerate impact. GCP-affiliated Country Platforms in Brazil, Honduras, Indonesia, Kenya, Uganda, and Vietnam will share insights from coffee-producing regions. (Geneva, Switzerland)

• Fri, 25 Sep – Athens Coffee Festival to begin on 26 September. The 2026 Athens Coffee Festival will host several competitions, including the 2026 Hellenic Coffee Championships. Visitors can also participate in Coffee Matters seminars and panels, network, and sample coffees from leading national and regional specialty roasters. (Athens, Greece)

• Fri, 25 Sep – Tenth Ljubljana Coffee Festival takes place at the Ljubljana City Museum. The event, running on 26 & 27 September, is expected to be the biggest edition yet, hosting the Roasters Village and Slovenian Roasters Zone, expert speakers at The Lab, workshops hosted by Akademija Stow, the Barista Battle Challenge, the international Latte Art Throwdown, the Sensory Room, and more. (Ljubljana, Slovenia)

Photo credits: Swiss Water

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