Coffee News Recap, 28 Aug: ICE-certified arabica stocks fall close to lowest levels since 1999, C price forecast at US$3/lb by year-end & other stories

Every Friday, Perfect Daily Grind rounds up the top coffee industry news from the week. 

Editor’s note

Certified arabica stocks on ICE have slipped to 226,242 bags, just above the November 2023 low of 224,000, according to Sucafina’s latest market report. If certified stocks drop further, they will fall to their lowest level since 1999. 

This alone isn’t concerning, but the EUDR takes effect in January 2027, and it will add administrative work to rebuild certified inventories. Exporters and roasters only have a few months left to buy and ship this coffee.

Meanwhile, a Reuters poll now points to arabica falling to around US$3/lb by year-end, while robusta is forecast to recover slightly to US$3,900/tonne. The poll’s contributors expect a modest 1.7-million-bag surplus for 2025/26, widening to 8.2 million bags in 2026/27, driven largely by a projected 17.2% jump in Brazilian output to 75 million bags.

For the wider coffee industry, falling certified stocks and a lower predicted C price point are working in opposite directions. Roasters could see input costs ease from this year’s highs, but producers face a market shifting from scarcity towards surplus. Low carryover stocks mean any weather shock, particularly from an emerging El Niño, could quickly reverse the slide.

Top stories of the week

• Mon, 24 Aug – National Federation of Colombian Coffee Growers says El Niño, not earthquake, is the biggest threat to Colombia’s coffee sector. “Production itself is not affected by the earthquake. Production will very likely be affected by the El Niño phenomenon,” said the federation’s head, German Bahamon. The FNC reported a 23% YoY drop in production, producing 1.06 million 60kg bags, attributing the decline to adverse weather conditions that delayed harvest. (Bogotá, Colombia)

• Mon, 24 Aug – Blank Street raises US$75m for West Coast expansion. New funding will also be used to add ice cream to its menus, supporting growing afternoon demand. This latest funding round values Blank Street, which started as a coffee cart, at around US$650m. (New York City, New York, US)

• Tue, 25 Aug – Saudi coffee and tea market hits US$1.87bn as imports and exports surge. Just six countries account for 62% of the overall trade volume. Ethiopia leads the list of global suppliers, with Saudi imports from the East African country alone climbing to US$431.84m. (Riyadh, Saudi Arabia)

• Wed, 26 Aug – ICE certified arabica stocks near their lowest levels since 1999. According to Sucafina’s latest market report, certified arabica stocks are around 226,242 bags, close to the lows set in November 2023. If stocks fall further, they would be the lowest since 1999. (New York City, New York, US)

• Wed, 26 Aug – Reuters poll forecasts arabica at US$3/lb and robusta at US$3,900/tonne by year-end. Poll respondents said even a substantial supply surplus in the coming coffee year is unlikely to drag prices down significantly. Carry-over stocks remain low, and global demand keeps growing as new consumer markets emerge quickly, including China. (New York City, New York, US)

• Fri, 28 Aug – Glacial lake outburst causes devastating floods in Nepal. At least 180 people have been killed, and thousands are missing, according to Al Jazeera. Local residents have reported that coffee farms have been destroyed. (Kathmandu, Nepal)

Industry news

• Mon, 24 Aug – Anneli Ellsäter appointed new CEO of Löfbergs. Ellsäter will take up her position on 1 October, succeeding Anders Fredriksson, who is moving on to a new role within Humble Group. (Karlstad, Sweden)

• Mon, 24 Aug – US consumers tighten spending as inflation rises, but still splurge on coffee. Earnings reports over the past month ‌from a slate of US supermarkets, home improvement stores, restaurants, and luxury brands have shown consumers directing most of their spending toward essentials, while still making room for affordable treats and occasional splurges like coffee.

• Tue, 25 Aug – Reysol Coffee Roasters runs fundraiser for the earthquake-affected community in Balboa. Reysol Coffee Roasters, a family-owned Colombian coffee company with two shops in New Jersey, is raising funds for the earthquake-affected coffee community in Balboa, including producers and pickers, through a GoFundMe campaign. The campaign hopes to raise US $50,000 for heavy-duty tarps and emergency tents, structured around damage assessments from Balboa’s Cuerpo de Bomberos. More than 600 homes were damaged in Balboa alone. (Balboa, Colombia)

• Tue, 25 Aug – Copenhagen’s Coffee Collective announces exclusive pop-up at Rosslyn. Founder and 2006 World Barista Champion, Klaus Thomsen, will be behind the coffee machine in person. Denmark’s cult “bun with cheese”, the BMO, will also be served at the pop-up made by acclaimed Hackney bakery Forno. (London, UK)

• Wed, 26 Aug – Scooter’s Coffee names Anna Faktorovich as Chief Marketing Officer. Scooter’s Coffee, one of the largest drive-thru coffee chains in the US, announces Anna Faktorovich as its new CMO. Anna will oversee the company’s brand, marketing, loyalty, CRM, and menu strategy functions. (Omaha, Nebraska, US)

• Wed, 26 Aug – Coffee Futures Fund seeks independent café owners for second cohort. Coffee Futures Fund, a free mentorship programme built for independent coffee shop owners, has opened applications for its second cohort, following a first year in which ten participating shops reportedly grew combined annual revenue by 52%. Applications for the Winter 2027 cohort are open through 15 October, with selections expected by 15 November. The 10-week virtual programme is scheduled to run from January through March 2027. (US

• Thu, 27 Aug – Neumann Kaffee Gruppe publishes its CSRD-aligned 2026 Sustainability Report. The green coffee service group distributed 20.9 million trees to promote agroforestry and intercropping, employs over 350 staff in Farmer Service Units to provide guidance and support sustainable initiatives, and has reduced Energy Inventory Scope 1 and 2 emissions since 2022. (Hamburg, Germany)

• Thu, 27 Aug – Specialty Coffee Association presents the Slate of Candidates for the 2027-29 Board of Directors election and appoints Second Vice President. Jon Allen, co-founder and CEO of Onyx Coffee Lab, has been selected by the board to serve as Second Vice President. Ahmed Bin Sulayem, Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Dubai Multi Commodities Centre (DMCC), Sunalini N. Menon, President of Coffeelab Limited, and Karsten Ranitzsch, Global Head of Coffee at Nespresso, have been put forward for the 2027-29 Board of Directors election. The final ballot will be announced on 13 October. (Irvine, California, US)

• Fri, 28 Aug – J. M. Smucker forecasts smaller-than-expected annual sales decline on steady coffee demand. The company, which owns Folgers, Café Bustelo, and at-home Dunkin’ products, reported that price-conscious consumers are increasingly their at-home coffee consumption. It also stated that lower coffee prices have allowed it to lower its retail prices. (Orrville, Ohio, US)

New launch

• Mon, 24 Aug – 7Brew launches canned coffee lineup and new 7Brew Energy. The rapidly-growing drive-thru beverage brand, is launching its new canned coffee lineup at 4,000 Walmart stores and five new 7Brew Energy flavours at 1,000 Walmart stores in the US. (Springdale, Arkansas, US)

• Mon, 24 Aug – Loring launches new knowledge base for customer support. The new mobile-friendly Knowledge Base is designed to give customers and field technicians faster access to technical information. The platform brings hundreds of machine-specific documents and troubleshooting resources into one centralised system for international customers. (Santa Rosa, California, US)

• Tue, 25 Aug – Subko Coffee launches Indian Gesha. The natural processed coffee is grown at Riverdale Coffee, with tasting notes of pomelo, stone fruit, apricot, and Earl Grey tea. With this, Subko joins the league of Indian brands selling Indian Gesha for café customers and home brewers. (Mumbai, India)

• Tue, 25 Aug – Dunkin’ to return to Puerto Rico in 2027. Dunkin’ will open its first locations in Puerto Rico next year through a partnership with Fusion Restaurant Group, an operator based on the island. The deal marks Dunkin’s return to the US territory more than a decade after the brand pulled back its presence on the island. (Canton, Massachusetts, US)

• Wed, 26 Aug – Dalla Corte launches Zero Plus Series to support workflow and consistency. The brand celebrates 25 years by announcing the launch of the Zero Plus series, a new generation of commercial espresso machines designed to reduce variability, simplify training, and provide advanced extraction controls. (Milan, Italy)

• Thu, 27 Aug – Koppie launches OtherKinds, a D2C test bed for coffee complements. The Belgian food-tech company pioneering a unique “bean” coffee complement built on a patented fermentation process, has launched “OtherKinds”, its consumer-facing brand. The move follows a period of focus on scaling up production and new manufacturing partnerships which have strengthened Koppie’s B2B supply chain. (Ghent, Belgium)

• Thu, 27 Aug – Peter Roberts publishes new book unpacking the commodification of specialty coffee producers. In his book From Supply and Demand to Numbers, Networks, and Narratives, Roberts outlines how producers who grow differentiated specialty coffee don’t have access to relevant price information and have outdated market connections. He concludes by offering specific motivations for researchers to explore valuation and pricing in specialty coffee markets. (Decatur, Georgia, US)

• Fri, 28 Aug – Stumptown Coffee Roasters returns to LA with flagship café and regional training space. The store, opening on 29 August, marks Stumptown’s return to the city core following a decade in the Downtown LA Arts District (2013-2024) and an expansion into Pasadena in 2024. (Los Angeles, California, US)

Milestone

• Mon, 24 Aug – Everyday Dose expands into Sam’s Club in the US and appoints Kyle Thibaut as CEO. The functional coffee brand announced nationwide expansion of its signature Coffee+ now available in over 300 Sam’s Club locations. Kyle Thibaut brings more than two decades of experience building and scaling businesses, having held senior roles at Robin Hood, Credit Karma, and TrueCar. (Austin, Texas, US)

• Wed, 26 Aug – J.M. Smucker Co. announces Jeff Varcoe as Senior Vice President, Science and Technical Excellence. Varcoe will serve as the leader of Science and Technical Excellence, ensuring operational excellence across all technical disciplines that underpin product quality, compliance, and innovation. (Ohio, US)

Trade & production

• Tue, 25 Aug – Arabica coffee harvest jumps to 87% in the Expocacer region. The figure is slightly behind last year’s, which was around 90% at the same time in 2025, when the harvest was smaller. (Cerrado Mineiro, Brazil)

Research

• Mon, 24 Aug – BrewAtlas publishes The State of Specialty Coffee 2026 report. The curated specialty coffee directory covers 6,163 vetted cafés across 96 cities. The report finds the global median café runs 7:30 am to 5:30 pm local time, and roughly seven in ten are closed by 6 pm. But in Mumbai and Delhi the median close is 11 pm, and 10 pm in Dubai. (Johannesburg, South Africa)

• Wed, 26 Aug – Researchers build dual-sided green coffee inspection system. The setup combines a mechanical device with rollers, gears, and a Geneva wheel mechanism that flips each bean 180 degrees between two camera shots, so every bean is fully imaged front and back. Researchers say this new dual-sided system improves the accuracy of defect detection. (Orizaba, Mexico)

• Thu, 27 Aug – Study finds independent third wave coffee shop interior design has become its own distinct brand. A survey including nearly 300 responses found that many third wave coffee shops share the same design aesthetics. Staff with tattoos or piercings topped the list at 66%, followed by staff with beards at 59%, chalkboard signage at 56%, reclaimed wood at 56%, and local art at 56%. Exposed brick showed up in half the shops, and reused or vintage furniture in 47%. (Buffalo, New York, US)

Events & competitions

• Mon, 24 Aug – Mercadao to host Brazil Latte Art and Coffee in Good Spirits Championships in September. The two competitions will take place from 3 to 5 September, with the winners going on to represent Brazil at the world finals at World of Coffee Lisbon in June 2027. (Sao Paolo, Brazil)

• Mon, 24 Aug – MICE2027 to return from 4 to 6 March at Melbourne Convention and Exhibition Centre. The event, expecting over 26,000 visitors, 157 exhibitors, and 78 speakers, will feature the Roasters Playground, Product Innovation Awards, Trip to Origin, the Café Owners Education Series, and the 2027 GCR Leaders Symposium. (Melbourne, Australia)

• Tue, 25 Aug – Brazilian Specialty Coffee Association and Alliance for Coffee Excellence to host Best of Canephora Brazil 2026. The new competition will follow the same format as Cup of Excellence. Members of “Brazil. The Coffee Nation” can register their samples from the 2026 harvest until 3 September 2026 in the Classic Process and Experimental Process categories. The winning lots will be sold at an international live auction on 29 November 2026. (Sao Paolo, Brazil)

• Tue, 25 Aug – Ljubljana Coffee Festival 2026 finds a new home and promises biggest edition yet. Slovenia’s largest specialty coffee event, which will celebrate its tenth edition this year, will take place at Center Rog. The event will host the Roasters Village, the Lab, the Slovenian Roasters Zone, a panel forum, the Barista Battle Challenge, Latte Art Throwdown Slovenia, Akadeijma Stow workshops, and the Alpro Barista Stand. (Ljubljana, Slovenia)

• Wed, 26 Aug – The 48th SIGEP World to be held from 23 to 27 January 2027 at Rimini Expo Centre. The 2026 event attracted over 198,000 visitors and 1,400 exhibiting brands from 160 countries. Next year’s edition will showcase the latest in coffee, pizza, gelato, bakery, and foodservice trends, including the Shop of the Future Project, coffee sensory itineraries and cuppings, Italian Barista Championships, and the Micro Roasters Village. (Rimini, Italy)

• Thu, 27 Aug – Asia International Hotel Supplies & Food Expo to take place from 18 to 20 November. This year’s event has been upgraded with nine parallel expos, containing FBAF, PROPACK, HORECA, Agroworld, Build Asia, HVAC Asia, APS Asia, Smart City, and APLF Asia. The event covers hotel supplies, catering, food and beverage, agricultural goods, packaging machinery, construction materials, HVAC‑R, private‑label brands, and real‑estate industries. (Macao)

• Fri, 28 Aug – Nordic Coffee Fest announces the judges for the 2027 Nordic Best Roaster. The Nordic Best Roaster 2027 competition will see a selection round evaluated blind by a panel bringing experience from across roasting, sourcing, quality, training, and coffee development. Judges include Koppi co-founder Anne Lunell, La Cabra’s Julia Behlendorf, Prolog’s Błażej Stempin, co-owner of Swerl Beatriz Morais Ferreira, and founder of Morgon Gabriella Sand.
(Gothenburg, Sweden)

• Fri, 28 Aug – International jury completes cuppings for Taiwan Coffee Auction 2026: Reimagining the Cup. Led by head judge Darrin Daniel, the jury conducted first four sessions of tastings. The top 20 auction will take place in late October. (Taipei, Taiwan)

• Fri, 28 Aug – Winners of the inaugural Kenneth Davids Cup announced. The first edition of the competition received samples from 35 US states, 14 countries, and 34 coffee-producing countries. Winners include Hula Daddy Kona Coffee, Kakalove Café, Lin Jen Wei’s Black Jar Coffee, BlendIn Coffee Club, and SOT Coffee Roasters. (Berkeley, California, US)

Here are a few coffee news stories from previous weeks that you might find interesting. Take a look:

• Tue, 18 Aug – Knoops opens first permanent store in US. The British drinking-chocolate brand recorded the highest volume of drinks per trading hour of any Knoops launch at its Salt Lake City opening, following a campaign built around local testing, social media promotion, and complimentary opening-weekend drinks. (Salt Lake City, Utah, US)

• Wed, 19 Aug – Gail’s strengthens rapid delivery via Uber Eats partnership. The bakery chain expands upon its existing partnership with Deliveroo, and taps into an acceleration in UK consumer habits for morning deliveries. (London, UK)

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