Coffee News Recap, 31 Jul: US specialty coffee consumption holds at record 47%, concerns over El Niño drive arabica futures higher & other stories

Every Friday, Perfect Daily Grind rounds up the top coffee industry news from the week. 

Editor’s note

American coffee drinkers have made their choice clear. For the second consecutive year, specialty coffee consumption has held at a record 47% of US adults, surpassing traditional coffee’s 42% past-day intake. Younger consumers are leading the charge: 69% of 25-to-39-year-olds drank specialty in the past week, the highest of any age group. This isn’t a fleeting trend; it’s a structural shift toward quality, craft, and experience that the industry has spent years building.

But here’s the tension: just as demand reaches new heights, supply faces a familiar threat. Concerns over a potentially historic El Niño are pushing arabica futures higher, with heavy rains already delaying Brazil’s harvest. The USDA may project a record 2026/27 crop, but weather patterns have a way of rewriting forecasts. If flowering is disrupted in Brazil’s key growing regions this September and October, that surplus could evaporate quickly.

The specialty sector has always thrived on differentiation, quality over quantity, and relationships over commodities. But differentiation doesn’t shield roasters and cafes from the reality of green coffee costs. A supply shock would test margins across the value chain, from producer to barista. The record demand we’re celebrating today makes the industry more vulnerable, not less, to the volatility that El Niño threatens to deliver.

For now, specialty coffee’s trajectory is one of remarkable strength. But the weather doesn’t read market reports. The question isn’t whether El Niño will arrive, but whether the industry is prepared for what comes next.

Top stories of the week

• Mon, 27 Jul – Shanghai surpasses 10,000 cafés in 2025, with the city’s coffee sector valued at $51.9bn. The China Urban Coffee Development Report shows a 13.3% annual growth. Per capita consumption rose from 16.7 to 28.6 cups between 2023 and 2025. Yunnan’s share of specialty coffee jumped from 8% to 31.6%. (Shanghai, China)

• Mon, 27 Jul – US specialty coffee consumption holds at record 47%, according to new NCDT Report. 47% of American adults drank specialty in the past day, surpassing traditional coffee at 42%. 69% of 25‑39 year‑olds are weekly specialty drinkers. 36% of past‑day specialty drinkers had coffee made away from home. (New York City, New York, US)

• Tue, 28 Jul – Study links midlife coffee consumption to 18% lower dementia risk. Harvard researchers analysed decades of data and found the association only for caffeinated versions. Tea consumption declined by 14%. (Boston, Massachusetts, US)

• Wed, 29 Jul – US judge rejects Chobani’s bid to dismiss Danone’s cold brew packaging lawsuit. Danone alleges Chobani copied the yellow-and-black colour scheme and ‘Bright & Mellow’ slogan for La Colombe to confuse consumers with Danone’s SToK coffee. Judge Rochon found a plausible inference of bad faith. (New York City, New York, US)

• Wed, 29 Jul – Concerns over a potential record-breaking El Niño drive arabica futures higher. ICE arabica rose 3.4% to 324.55¢, as certified stocks fell below 300,000 bags. The phenomenon could be the strongest in 150 years. Heavy rain in Brazil is slowing the harvest and raising quality concerns. (New York City, New York, US)

• Wed, 29 Jul – Uganda launches $200m program to boost value addition in the country’s coffee industry. The Nonda Coffee Park’s Nakaseke facility will process 42,000 tonnes of coffee annually and already has an off‑take market in Saudi Arabia. The government will contribute $44m, with private Saudi investors funding the rest. Projected annual revenues exceed $800m. (Kampala, Uganda)

• Thu, 30 Jul – SIAL Guangzhou 2026 takes place 3‑5 Sep, featuring the SIAL CUP Barista Championship. The trade show expects 1,500 exhibitors and 65,000 visitors across 60,000 sqm, with 14 themed zones and competitions including the Tea Mixologist Challenge. (Guangzhou, China)

• Fri, 31 Jul – Global Coffee Awards hosts a webinar focused on plant-based milk. The event discussed the value of competing in the Global Coffee Awards, featuring guests like the Harris Woolf Almonds CEO, and highlighting how coffee is evaluated across plant-based milk applications and alternative pairings. (London, UK)

Industry news

• Mon, 27 Jul – Tata Consumer’s India coffee business grows 24% in Q1 as consolidated net profit rises 28% to $44.2m. The company also reiterated its annual operating margin expansion target and revenue growth guidance. (Mumbai, India)

• Mon, 27 Jul – Experts advise teens to limit caffeine to 100mg per day, about one espresso or energy drink. Nutritionist Stefano Erzegovesi warns that cola, tea and chocolate also count toward the daily total, and that caffeine can disrupt sleep and brain development in adolescents. (Milan, Italy)

• Tue, 28 Jul – Heinz Wattie’s to cease production of Gregg’s and Special Blend instant coffee. The Dunedin factory, established in 1925, will close this week. Production ends after roughly 75 years, though stock may last until year-end. (Dunedin, New Zealand)

• Tue, 28 Jul – Costa Coffee resets India strategy with Gen Z focus. Store count fell 22 to 198 in FY26, the first drop in over five years, but revenue rose 7% to $25.4m (Rs 212.5 crore) on improved per-outlet earnings. Franchisee Devyani International adopted a more disciplined expansion approach while targeting millennials. (New Delhi, India)

• Tue, 28 Jul – Panera Bread to move HQ from St Louis to Boston area in July 2027 as part of turnaround strategy. The company will keep a support centre in Missouri, but many roles will relocate to Weston, Massachusetts. CEO Paul Carbone said the move aligns teams behind the Panera RISE transformation plan. (Weston, Massachusetts, US)

• Wed, 29 Jul – Brooklyn Roasting recalls 3,408 gallons of cold brew over botulism risk. The Class II recall covers 2.5‑gallon bag‑in‑box units with best‑by dates from 3 June to 30 September 2026. No illnesses reported. (New York City, New York, US)

• Wed, 29 Jul – Coffee trees from the Japanese colonial era rediscovered and cultivated on Rota Island. The Typica variety, thought lost after WWII, is being revived for the new ‘Rota Blue Coffee’ brand by Japanese and island partners. (Rota, Mariana Islands, US)

• Wed, 29 Jul – Pret A Manger names Anita McDonnell as new international president. She will lead the business across Europe, Asia and Africa from August, succeeding Eira Jarvis, who will leave at the end of the year after 13 years with the company. (London, UK)
  
  
• Wed, 29 Jul — Iron & Fire’s On The Rocks coffee receives Great Taste 3-Star award. This is the top rating that the Great Taste Awards gives out, for a single-origin Colombian coffee rested 28 days in Scottish whisky casks before roasting. (Shrewsbury, UK)

• Thu, 30 Jul – Starbucks turnaround gains momentum as Q3 comp sales rise 7.9%. The coffee giant raised its fiscal 2026 EPS forecast to $2.55-$2.65, up from $2.25-$2.45, and now projects 6.5% global same‑store sales growth. Shares climbed 8% after hours. (Seattle, Washington, US)

• Thu, 30 Jul – Greggs H1 profit jumps 20% to £76m as sales rise 7.2% to £1.1bn. Operating profit rose 22.9% to £86.5m. The UK bakery chain opened 34 net new stores, reaching 2,773, and expects 100‑110 net openings for the full year. Iced matcha latte sales proved a hit. (London, UK)

• Thu, 30 Jul – Mother Parker’s expands into coffee extract solutions with new Ontario facility. The 40,000 sq ft plant in Mississauga will produce cold brew extracts and RTD concentrates. It is part of a $30m investment aimed at capturing growing demand for premium cold coffee and foodservice applications. (Mississauga, Canada)

• Fri, 31 Jul – Specialty coffee moves from niche to mainstream across retail, foodservice and packaging, says GlobalData. The survey found that 51% of global consumers are influenced by origin information and 67% buy more from brands that align with their values. The report highlights functional wellness, personalisation and sustainability as key drivers for the category’s growth. (London, UK)

• Fri, 31 Jul – Starbucks CEO says store location is key to being a ‘great coffee house’. The chain changed its store-building strategy and is still fixing some misplaced locations. Closures will be fine-tuning, not a wave of shutdowns. (Seattle, Washington, US)

Businesses for sale

• Wed, 29 Jul – Merrie England business and assets up for sale after 60-year chain closes. The seven‑site Yorkshire café chain shut on 28 July, citing rising costs, lower footfall and reduced spending. Turnover was £4.28m between June 2024 and November 2025. Offers due by 11 August. (London, UK)

New launch

• Tue, 28 Jul – Wavelength Coffee launches hospitality division for sustainable specialty coffee supply. The B Corp roaster now offers a full service to restaurants, hotels and cafés, building on its recent partnership with Revival Café and Kitchen. (London, UK)

• Wed, 29 Jul – Luckin Coffee and Duolingo launch limited‑time collaboration in NYC. The campaign features four beverages including two new summer drinks, co‑branded packaging, and collectable merchandise. It is Luckin’s first US partnership. (New York City, New York, US)

• Wed, 29 Jul – Two Chimps Coffee launches nitrogen‑infused canned cold brew. The Rutland roastery uses 100% speciality‑grade Arabica from Rwanda, scored at 85.25 points. The coffee is cold‑brewed and infused with nitrogen for a smooth, dairy‑free finish. (London, UK)

• Wed, 29 Jul – Tchibo to launch new cafe concept to gauge German coffee preferences. The pilot store in Hamburg will serve as a test bed for curated roast profiles, with plans to expand based on consumer feedback. (Hamburg, Germany)

• Wed, 29 Jul – Starbucks tests sparkling beverages in Austin, San Antonio and St Louis. The line includes four lemonade‑based Refreshers and four Spritzes, including a Sparkling Cold Brew Sour Spritz. A global product executive said the trial evaluates customer demand and the role of sparkling drinks in the chain’s long‑term strategy. (Seattle, Washington, US)

• Wed, 29 Jul – Mundo Novo launches CS1-Pro automated pourover machine. The upgraded single‑spout model adds deeper recipe controls, wireless connectivity and an agitation mode. A two‑group version follows in August. (New York City, New York, US)

• Thu, 30 Jul – Califia Farms launches limited-edition Banana Crème oat milk and cold brew with almond milk. The banana‑flavoured products are available nationwide for a limited time, priced at $5.49 and $4.49 respectively. (Los Angeles, California, US)

• Thu, 30 Jul – Bitty & Beau’s Coffee launches fundraising programme across the US for schools and nonprofits. Organisations earn $8 per item sold through the ‘Fundraise with Coffee’ platform, with no upfront costs. The initiative extends the brand’s disability inclusion mission beyond its coffee shops. (Wilmington, North Carolina, US)

• Thu, 30 Jul – Victoria Arduino unveils Record undercounter espresso machine. The compact system frees up counter space and offers advanced thermal management, with independent group heating and real‑time temperature control. Designed for high‑volume specialty settings, it will debut at Host Milano in October. Pricing is expected around $23,000. (Milan, Italy)

• Thu, 30 Jul – Free Rein Coffee launches protein coffee pods and RTD cold brew at Walmart. The Protein Coffee Collection includes K‑Cup pods with 10g of protein and cold brew cans with 20g. The expansion follows customer demand for more protein in their daily routine. (San Angelo, Texas, US)

Milestone

• Mon, 27 Jul – Lavazza IncluCity Festival draws record 68,000 attendees for 15th anniversary. The 10‑day event at Toronto’s Distillery District featured Italian film screenings, culinary experiences, live music and coffee tastings, with Lavazza driving cultural engagement through art and community programming. (Toronto, Canada)

• Tue, 28 Jul – Weber Workshops UniBasket official WBC espresso basket for 2026-2027. The partnership with World Coffee Championships introduces a new 3D‑printed mesh design for even extraction. The first‑of‑its‑kind basket is made in the US and features a redesigned logo for the season. (Everett, Washington, US)

• Thu, 30 Jul – Align Ventures closes oversubscribed $125m Fund II. The early-stage consumer VC, which has backed coffee brands like Jinx, will invest $2m-$10m initial checks into 15-20 brands across beauty, personal care, health, wellness, pet and home. (New York City, New York, US)

Trade & production

• Mon, 27 Jul – Sluggish trade in Vietnam as supplies run low at harvest end. Farmers sold beans at $3.66‑3.69 per kg, down from last week. September robusta futures fell $22 to $3,796 per tonne. Indonesia robusta premiums jumped to $160 per tonne, up from $80 last week. (Hanoi, Vietnam)

• Thu, 30 Jul – Liberia distributes 750,000 Liberica coffee seedlings to revive the sector. The programme launched in Gbarnga targets Bong, Nimba, Lofa, Montserrado and Bomi counties. The government aims to establish over five million Liberica trees by 2030. Technical support and processing equipment are also planned. (Monrovia, Liberia)

• Fri, 31 Jul – Coffee futures retreat after strong rally, with arabica down 4% and robusta losing over 2.5%. The profit-taking followed last week’s sharp gains. Brazil’s harvest is accelerating as dry weather returns, though quality concerns from earlier rain persist. El Niño risk and low ICE stocks keep underlying sentiment bullish. (New York City, New York, US)

• Fri, 31 Jul – Fairtrade International raises minimum coffee prices. Effective from December, Washed Arabica increases 11% to $2.00/lb and natural Robusta 8% to $1.30/lb. The Fairtrade Premium and organic differential remain unchanged at $0.20/lb and $0.40/lb, respectively. (Bonn, Germany)

• Fri, 31 Jul – Rains halt coffee harvest in Minas Gerais and São Paulo. Cooxupé’s survey shows the 2026/27 crop reached 52% by 24 July, down from 77% last year. Heavy rainfall raised quality concerns and disrupted fieldwork. The harvest could extend into September, with El Niño threatening the next season. (São Paulo, Brazil)

Research

• Mon, 27 Jul – Study compares Brazil and Colombia EUDR compliance models for coffee. Colombia’s National Federation provides a centralised framework, while Brazil relies on a decentralised network via CECAFÉ and cooperatives. Both are using digital traceability and georeferencing to meet the regulation. (São Paulo, Brazil)

• Wed, 29 Jul – Study finds optimal method to extract oil from spent coffee grounds for biodiesel. The Universitat Rovira i Virgili team achieved 90% oil yield at 45°C for 60 minutes using n‑hexane. The process leaves the residue usable for bioethanol and other bioproducts. (Tarragona, Spain)

• Thu, 30 Jul – New ant behaviour discovered that could protect coffee from berry borers. The University of Michigan researcher documented ants using borer‑damaged berries to reproduce, potentially boosting ant populations on coffee plants. The finding, published in Ecology, could help combat a pest that causes up to $1bn in annual losses. (Ann Arbor, Michigan, US)

Events & competitions

• Mon, 27 Jul – The Barista League North America is set for 3 Sep in Atlanta. Six teams will compete in front of world‑famous judges. The event also features guest roasters from around the world brewing competition coffees for attendees. (Atlanta, Georgia, US)

• Mon, 27 Jul – Vietnam promotes its coffee at Expo Café Chile 2026. The Asian country’s trade office led a 20‑company pavilion at the 24‑26 July fair, showcasing robusta, arabica, instant and specialty coffees to nearly 30,000 visitors. The event builds on last year’s debut to strengthen the brand in Latin America. (Santiago, Chile)

• Tue, 28 Jul – Brighton Coffee Festival returns 8-9 Aug, featuring over 50 exhibitors, cuppings & talks. The event also includes the UK & Ireland Filter Championships, Latte Art Championships, an all-new workshop space, free samples and live entertainment. (Brighton, UK)

• Tue, 28 Jul – Oman’s Azura Coffee secures second place globally at People’s Choice Coffee Awards. Roasti Coffee Co. of Canada took first place, with Nylon Coffee Roasters of Singapore in third. The award is decided entirely by public vote. (Muscat, Oman)

• Wed, 29 Jul – Global Coffee Awards US, Canada and Latin America editions set for August 10-12. The competition rewards roastery brands, not individual baristas, across defined categories. Regional winners advance to the global finals. (New York City, New York, US)

• Wed, 29 Jul – Host and NAFEM partner to launch Host America in Orlando from 11‑13 February 2027. The collaboration targets the €24.8bn US hospitality market, with Italy already the EU’s top supplier. Coffee equipment and gelato technologies are key growth sectors. (Orlando, Florida, US)

• Thu, 30 Jul – Coffee Fest Los Angeles runs 21-22 August. The B2B West Coast specialty coffee event features hundreds of brands, over 80 hours of education and 50+ free seminars, plus dedicated areas including the Roasting Hub, Cupping Corner, Latte Art Venue and Tech Lab. (Los Angeles, California, US)

• Thu, 30 Jul – Warsaw Sweet Tech 2026 trade fair to showcase confectionery, bakery and coffee industries. The international event runs 15-17 September at Ptak Warsaw Expo, featuring a dedicated coffee zone with espresso machines, grinders and brewing equipment, alongside the Sweet Tech International Congress. (Warsaw, Poland)

Here are a few coffee news stories from previous weeks that you might find interesting. Take a look:

• Wed, 15 Jul – Filtered coffee linked to slower biological ageing, instant coffee to accelerated ageing, UK Biobank study finds. Analysis of 49,414 participants showed filtered coffee was associated with reduced biological age, while instant coffee was linked to accelerated ageing. Mediation analysis points to metabolic rate and glycoprotein acetylation as key factors. (Chongqing, China)

• Thu, 23 Jul – SCA adds two GE CAFÉ coffee makers to Certified Home Brewers list. The models meet SCA standards for brew temperature, extraction and consistency. Wayne Davis, Senior Brand Director for CAFÉ, said the brand is elevating the at‑home coffee experience. (Irvine, California, US)

• Thu, 23 Jul – Half-Caff Coffee launches three RTD lattes with 50mg caffeine each. The Original, Vanilla and Mocha flavours have 8g of protein, 3g of fibre and minimal sugar. They are available at Whole Foods across the US. (Northbrook, Illinois, US)

• Thu, 23 Jul – Oatly raises full-year guidance as Q2 revenue grows 15% to $240m. Gross margin hit 33.9%, and adjusted EBITDA turned positive at $0.4m. Net loss narrowed to $31.3m from $55.9m a year earlier. The company now expects 8‑10% constant‑currency revenue growth for 2026. (Malmö, Sweden)

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