Coffee News Recap, 5 Jun: Arabica futures fall to lowest levels since Nov 2024, specialty coffee consumption remains at record high in the US & other stories

Every Friday, Perfect Daily Grind rounds up the top coffee industry news from the week. 

Editor’s note

After two years of unprecedented price surges, there are signs of relief for the coffee industry. Arabica prices have been falling steadily through 2026, reaching an 18-month low in recent weeks, driven largely by expectations of a record harvest in Brazil.

Crop forecasting agency Conab projects the country’s 2026 coffee harvest will climb 17% year-on-year to a record 66.7 million bags, with arabica production rising 23% to 45.77 million bags. A new USDA report estimates an even higher figure of almost 72 million bags. Rabobank, meanwhile, predicts the global coffee market could record a surplus of 7 to 10 million bags in the 2026/27 season, which could bring prices down further.

For roasters and coffee shop owners, who absorbed years of compressed margins, the timing is welcome. Some market analysts expect arabica to fall towards US$2/lb in the coming months, but risks remain. Concerns about a “super” El Niño disrupting Brazil’s flowering season for the 2027/28 harvest could push prices higher.

The situation warrants cautious optimism. Supply conditions look favourable for now, but coffee has caught markets off guard before.

Top stories of the week

• Mon, 1 Jun – Trump proposes a new 25% tariff on Brazil, but most coffee would be exempt. The USTR investigation found some Brazilian trade practices to be “unreasonable,” opening the door to punitive tariffs on most goods. Most coffee would be excluded. The proposal is subject to public consultation until 15 July. (Washington, DC, US)

• Mon, 1 Jun – Nigeria unveils ten-year coffee cultivation revival plan. The initiative will cover 14 states, focusing on farm rehabilitation, improved seedlings, processing infrastructure, and export expansion. Nigeria currently grows around 100,000 tonnes per year. (Abuja, Nigeria)

• Tue, 2 Jun – Specialty coffee holds lead over traditional coffee in the US, says new NCDT Specialty Coffee Report. 47% of American adults had specialty coffee in the past day, maintaining a record high set in 2025 and keeping past-day specialty coffee consumption higher than past-day traditional coffee consumption. (New York City, New York, US)

• Wed, 3 Jun – Arabica futures fall to a 1.5-year low following drier weather forecasts in Brazil. Despite recent hailstorms and heavy rains in Brazil’s key coffee-growing regions, arabica prices fell to their lowest levels since November 2024. (New York City, New York, US)

• Wed, 3 Jun – 2026 Good Food Awards Coffee winners announced. This year’s winners include Ohio’s Crimson Coffee, Oregon’s Keia & Martyn’s Coffee, California’s Equator Coffee, and New York’s Driftaway Coffee. (San Francisco, California, US)

• Thu, 4 Jun – Colombia’s 2026/27 harvest is forecast to rise 7.2% to 13.4 million bags. Drier conditions support a rebound in the 2025/26 crop, which was hampered by rain, according to the latest USDA report, though it remains below the 14.8 million bags reported for 2024/25. (Bogotá, Colombia)

• Thu, 4 Jun – Instant coffee faces 25% US tariff, while other Brazilian coffees are exempt, says BSCA. The US Trade Representative proposed a new levy on soluble coffee, effective 15 July, up from the current 10%. The association warns of impacts on the global coffee industry. (São Paulo, Brazil)

• Thu, 4 Jun – Brazil 2026/27 coffee harvest seen at 71.9m bags, exports to jump by 30%. Arabica recovery drives the increase, rising 25% to 47.5m bags, while robusta dips slightly to 24.4m, according to a new USDA report. Ending stocks replenish to 4.42m after years of tight supply. (Brasília, Brazil)

• Fri, 5 Jun – World of Coffee Europe 2027 to take place in Lisbon. The event is set for 17-19 June 2027 and will host the World Latte Art, World Coffee in Good Spirits, and World Cezve/Ibrik Championships. This will be the first WoC event in Portugal. (Lisbon, Portugal)

• Fri, 5 Jun – Super El Niño could trigger 10-50% price spikes for coffee, analysts warn. Core commodities markets may see significant increases, with coffee among the most exposed. The weather phenomenon threatens flowering in Brazil and crops in Vietnam and Indonesia. (London, UK)

• Fri, 5 Jun – PDG Media to host Leveraging AI to Drive More Sales for Your Coffee Brand webinar on 17 June. The free webinar will discuss how coffee businesses can use AI to optimise their content, attract better leads, increase conversions, and generate more sales, with actionable strategies and a live Q&A. (London, UK)

Industry news

• Mon, 1 Jun – Starbucks ties tech workers’ bonuses to AI usage. A quarter of bonuses for most tech staff are linked to department-wide goals, including AI adoption, according to an internal document. Software developers must use an AI assistant at least once a week to comply with the requirement. (Seattle, Washington, US)

• Mon, 1 Jun – Lavazza’s 2025 sustainability report shows €3.9bn turnover and progress towards net zero by 2050. The Group cut emissions by 7.7% and made 90.8% of its packaging recyclable. Tabl1, a 100% coffee tab, was launched. EDGE certification and a global parental policy advanced social goals, according to the report. (Turin, Italy)

• Mon, 1 Jun – Rhea renews gender equality certification under UNI/PdR 125:2022. The coffee machine manufacturer confirms full compliance following an audit, reinforcing its Women Spark project and efforts to prevent relationship violence. It also signed the UN Women’s Empowerment Principles. (Milan, Italy)

• Tue, 2 Jun – Mixue’s 50,000-store empire takes direct aim at China’s coffee giants. The world’s largest F&B chain, with 45,000 stores in China, could soon compete head-on with Luckin Coffee and Cotti Coffee following a major new deal. (Zhengzhou, China)

• Tue, 2 Jun – Starbucks afternoon traffic grows fastest, with Refreshers topping consumer orders. The peak growth occurs between 3 pm and 5 pm. Refreshers are now the chain’s second-best-selling category. CEO Brian Niccol sees the daypart as a major opportunity to drive repeat visits beyond the morning rush. (Seattle, Washington, US)

• Tue, 2 Jun – Offices in the US add specialty coffee offerings to boost productivity and retention. Leaving for coffee costs 15‑20 minutes per run, while premium on‑site options keep staff engaged. (Boston, Massachusetts, US)

• Tue, 2 Jun – South Korea’s Mammoth Coffee targets Japan expansion following its acquisition by Orchestra PE. The value‑focused chain, with over 900 outlets in Korea, plans to leverage its low‑price, large‑volume model in the Japanese market, where it already operates several stores. (Seoul, South Korea)

• Wed, 3 Jun – Luckin Coffee and Mixue expand in the US, offering ultra-cheap drinks and shaking up local competition. Luckin has ten NYC stores with app-only ordering, while Mixue operates in LA and NYC. Luckin backer Centurium is buying Blue Bottle from Nestlé for under US$400m to enter the premium segment. (New York City, New York, US)

• Wed, 3 Jun – Café Coffee Day turns its first annual profit since 2019 under widow Malavika Hegde’s leadership. The Bengaluru‑based chain had been on the brink of collapse after discovering hundreds of millions in debt, leading to seven years of store closures. (Bengaluru, India)

• Wed, 3 Jun – Nestlé cuts dairy emissions by 26%, inaugural Dairy Plan report shows. The multinational works with 130,000 farmers on lower-carbon feed, manure management, and regenerative practices to reduce GHGs, strengthen livelihoods, and improve animal welfare, according to the report. (Vevey, Switzerland)

• Wed, 3 Jun – Jiangmen builds a complete coffee industry chain from scratch, hitting US$443m annual output. The city of Guangdong imports over 300 varieties of green coffee and has 21 roasters. More than 350 local firms supply 40% of China’s stainless steel coffee ware and produce one in five exported coffee machines. (Jiangmen, Guangdong, China)

• Thu, 4 Jun – Nestlé CEO says lower coffee and cocoa costs will boost margins in 2026. Input costs are favourable compared with 2025. The company plans an extra 600m Swiss francs (US$763m) in ad spend, reinvesting savings into growth platforms. (Vevey, Switzerland)

• Thu, 4 Jun – Bad Ass Coffee eyes 25‑30 US openings in 2026 via nontraditional formats. The Hawaiian brand has opened six non‑traditional stores, including travel plaza kiosks and drive‑thru only sites. It now operates seven Florida locations with a ten‑unit Gulf Coast deal. (Denver, Colorado, US)

• Fri, 5 Jun – Peet’s is looking for a Chief Playlist Officer in the US to fight the 3 pm slump. The winner receives a trip to a Chicago music festival and will help curate in‑café playlists. The brand also launched a Middle Ground half‑caff blend and a summer menu featuring sparkling energy drinks and protein oat lattes. (Emeryville, California, US)

• Fri, 5 Jun – Oceana Coffee’s CEO honoured at Girl Scouts of Southeast Florida’s Emerald Awards. Amy Angelo was recognised for growing the local roastery into a thriving regional business and helping other small food entrepreneurs. The event raised over US$160,000. (Palm Beach, Florida, US)

Businesses for sale

• Mon, 1 Jun – Gregorys Coffee signs first franchise deal with former barista Stavros Zamfotis. The New Jersey native, who spent nine years at the brand, will open his store in Bergen County. Gregorys joined Craveworthy Brands in 2025 and launched its franchise programme in 2026. (Bergen County, New Jersey, US)

• Tue, 2 Jun – Arla Foods and DMK Group officially merge to create Europe’s largest dairy co-operative. The combined entity will process 15.2 billion kg of milk annually, strengthening supply for coffee shops. (Aarhus, Denmark)

• Wed, 3 Jun – Black Rifle Coffee Company regains compliance with NYSE minimum share price requirement. The coffee brand, known for its veteran-focused marketing, had faced potential delisting after its stock traded below the exchange’s threshold. (Salt Lake City, Utah, US)

• Wed, 3 Jun – Roasting Plant Coffee seeks UK franchisee to accelerate expansion. The brand already has five profitable London stores and plans to scale globally with its Javabot in-store roasting tech. A recent Singapore deal targets up to 50 locations in Asia. (London, UK)

• Thu, 4 Jun – BWG buys O’Brien’s Cafe, Abrakebabra, and Bagel Factory in a €15-20m deal. The Spar operator, Ireland’s largest convenience retailer, acquires 72 locations, employing 2,500 people, including eight Oasis of Taste food halls, and plans to open 25 new sites by 2030. (Dublin, Ireland)

• Fri, 5 Jun – Royal Cup secures US$192m credit facility to acquire Farmer Brothers. White Oak and Hilco provided the senior secured package, including a US$155m revolver and a US$37m term loan. The deal expands Royal Cup’s national footprint and manufacturing capabilities. (New York City, New York, US)

New launch

• Mon, 1 Jun – Oval Coffee Roasters expands California distribution via Whisha Specialty Coffee Distributors. The DSD partnership begins in Northern and Southern California, supporting retail placements at Whole Foods, Sprouts, Safeway, and Erewhon. (New York City, New York, US)

• Mon, 1 Jun – Don Francisco’s Coffee renews its packaging and launches Daybreak Blend and Moonlight Roast. The medium‑dark Daybreak offers fruit‑forward notes, while Moonlight is the roaster’s darkest roast to date. The new design uses a diagonal layout and colour‑coded system. (Los Angeles, California, US)

• Tue, 2 Jun – Art of Caffeination launches Kickstarter campaign for Taste-to-Ace coffee tasting cards. The deck helps users describe coffee flavour and aroma with confidence. It’s the creator’s second Kickstarter release, following Sip-to-Suit. (San Antonio, Texas, US)

• Tue, 2 Jun – Bulletproof partners with GLAAD for Pride Month coffee release. The limited-edition Cardamom, Orange & Honey blend donates 100% of proceeds to GLAAD. LGBTQ+ artist Shanée Benjamin designed the packaging. (Seattle, Washington, US)

• Tue, 2 Jun – Award-winning Origin Coffee brings cold brew production in-house. The B Corp roaster, which was awarded Europe’s best roaster at the 2025 Global Coffee Awards, now manufactures its Cold Brew Espresso Concentrate at its purpose-built Cold Brew Brewery. Origin also relaunched its home-compostable capsule range. (Cornwall, UK)

• Wed, 3 Jun – De Jong Duke launches Nio Next bean-to-cup machine with fresh milk system for professional venues. The model features a 10.4-inch touchscreen, access to the ConnectMe remote service, and over 93% recyclability. (Sliedrecht, Netherlands)

• Wed, 3 Jun – Café Bustelo launches the Game Face campaign, featuring limited-edition coffee cans that include temporary face-tattoo kits. Inspired by Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Mexico, each can contains a country‑specific tattoo kit, launched ahead of the World Cup. (Orrville, Ohio, US)

• Wed, 3 Jun – Urban Remedy expands plant‑based protein drinks with Shroom Coffee and Matcha Latte Protein. Each 16oz bottle contains 20g of plant protein, plus adaptogens in the coffee and antioxidants in the matcha, and is available at Whole Foods kiosks and online. (Port Richmond, California, US)

• Wed, 3 Jun – Bluewater launches the Coffee Rock formula to improve brew consistency and protect café equipment. Designed for the Café Station 1 system, it has a 6:1 magnesium-to-calcium ratio and is chloride-free. (Stockholm, Sweden)

• Thu, 4 Jun – Costa Coffee launches Podio X1 closed‑loop capsule system for out‑of‑home venues. The plug‑and‑play machine uses patented pre‑infusion and double‑filtration. It is available in the UK and Europe, with wider markets following in 2026. (London, UK)

• Thu, 4 Jun – Terra Kaffe launches Aero frother for milk and matcha. The Bauhaus‑inspired device has four modes, including a dedicated matcha whisk, and works with all types of milk. It heats to 60-71°C (140‑160°F), with a 190ml (6.7oz) capacity. (New York City, New York, US)

• Thu, 4 Jun – Nature Echo launches 10‑in‑1 mushroom coffee sachets for on‑the‑go consumption. The portable 12‑pack combines instant coffee, a 10:1 mushroom extract, and Ashwagandha. Each 2.5g sachet contains 1,920mg of coffee and 500mg of mushroom blend. (Westminster, Colorado, US)

• Thu, 4 Jun – Heirloom Coffee launches the Clean Craft platform with 100% Regenerative Organic Certified coffee. The vertically integrated brand sells nationwide at Target, Sprouts, and other retailers. Each bag includes a QR code linking to lot‑specific test results for pesticides, mould toxins, and heavy metals. (Oakland, California, US)

• Thu, 4 Jun – James Rodríguez’s 10 Coffee partners with Juan Valdez to launch World Cup‑inspired blend. The limited edition coffee features beans from Huila, Cauca, and Norte de Santander, and will be sold in Colombia, the US, and Mexico. (Bogotá, Colombia)

• Fri, 5 Jun – Groundswell documentary spotlights Colombian regenerative coffee. The film by Josh and Rebecca Tickell features Nespresso partner farmer Ruben Agudelo. It streams on Amazon Prime from 5 June and is narrated by Demi Moore and Woody Harrelson. (Vevey, Switzerland)

Milestone

• Mon, 1 Jun – Ellianos Coffee reaches 10th-state milestone in the US with Ohio opening. A multi-unit agreement brings the Florida-based drive‑thru chain to Cincinnati, with locations planned to open in 2027. (Cincinnati, Ohio, US)

• Mon, 1 Jun – Dutch Bros lifetime donations to MDA hit US$20m after Drink One For Dane day. The 19th annual event on 29 May raised over US$1.7m, pushing the total past the historic US$20m milestone. (Tempe, Arizona, US)

• Tue, 2 Jun – Vietnam’s “coffee capital” named one of the world’s best culinary destinations by National Geographic. Buon Ma Thuot produces 30% of the country’s coffee, including some of the world’s highest-quality robusta. Visitors can enjoy farm-to-cup experiences and traditional Ede coffee ceremonies. (Buon Ma Thuot, Vietnam)

• Wed, 3 Jun – BRITA to celebrate 60 years as diamond sponsor of World Coffee Championships during WoC Brussels. The water filtration pioneer will sponsor the World Brewers Cup, Coffee in Good Spirits, and Roasting Championship from 25-27 June, and will also host an exclusive cocktail evening. (Taunusstein, Germany)

• Thu, 4 Jun – Airo Vision+ bottom‑up espresso machine wins Compasso d’Oro 2026. Developed by Axess Industry, the anti‑gravity percolation model was also added to the Historical Collection of Italian Design. The coffee maker cuts energy use by up to 60% at 500‑600W, has fewer moving parts, and reduces limescale, according to the brand. (Milan, Italy)

• Fri, 5 Jun – Expocacer wins Gold ESG Award 2026 for its ECO Protocol in supply chain integration. The Cerrado Mineiro cooperative is the world’s first with regenerative coffee certification and supports farmers in carbon credit projects. The award ceremony will be held on 16 June in São Paulo. (Patrocínio, Brazil)

• Fri, 5 Jun – I Love Coffee celebrates a decade of creating employment opportunities for the Deaf community. The company has created more than 500,000 Deaf working hours (equivalent to 65 years of continuous employment), while providing sustainable career opportunities, producing award-winning baristas, and expanding into the UK market. I Love Coffee is also the first South African coffee business to employ a majority (above 60%) Deaf workforce across its network of in-office cafés. (Cape Town, South Africa)

• Fri, 5 Jun – Clean Cups completes multi-year home-compostable coffee capsule development project. The project, carried out by M-Plastics B.V., Hemcell Resins B.V., and Euro-Caps B.V., identified opportunities to create innovative packaging solutions aligned with the growing demand for circular materials and sustainable product concepts. In addition, extensive practical testing demonstrated that large-scale production is feasible using CCM technology, representing an important step toward industrial implementation. (Oldenzaal, the Netherlands)

Trade & production

• Mon, 1 Jun – EUDR pushes Honduran farmers to modernise long‑informal coffee supply chains. Becamo expanded the agronomic staff to 40 and the sustainability team to 51, while NKG provided a traceability app. Childcare centres help prevent child labour. (Tegucigalpa, Honduras)

• Mon, 1 Jun – Kona coffee farms face water crisis after earthquake. The 6.0-magnitude earthquake damaged water systems for hundreds of small farmers, who rely on rainwater tanks. Two local suppliers have so far received about 400 calls for help. (Kailua-Kona, Hawaii, US)

• Tue, 2 Jun – Tanzania coffee output forecast to rise 10.3% to 1.6m bags in 2026/27. The increase is driven by farm investments and favourable weather, and is supported by rehabilitated fields reaching full maturity and high prices encouraging farmers to expand planting. (Dodoma, Tanzania)

• Wed, 3 Jun – Indian coffee growers pivot to specialty as buyers demand farm-level traceability. The shift away from bulk transactions puts a premium on identifiable beans from estates like Thadian Kudisai, known for smooth, complex arabica varieties. (Kodaikanal, India)

• Fri, 5 Jun – Costa Rica coffee production rises 3.5% to 1.2m bags, but farmers struggle to find profit. Prices dropped from $574 to $378 per bag between October 2025 and April 2026. A strong colon, up 35% since mid‑2022, has cut local currency revenues, while high fertiliser costs and a looming El Niño add pressure. (San José, Costa Rica)

Research

• Mon, 1 Jun – Oregon researchers use a potentiostat to objectively measure coffee flavour at the molecular level. The electrochemical technique detects strength and roast level, outperforming traditional refractive index methods. Researchers said it flagged a sample that had failed a roaster’s own quality control. (Eugene, Oregon, US)

• Tue, 2 Jun – Study finds no causal link between coffee intake and thyroid cancer risk. Analysis of 212,119 UK Biobank and FinnGen data showed no significant association for follicular, papillary, or overall thyroid malignancy. (Baltimore, Maryland, US)

• Tue, 2 Jun – Cardiff named UK’s cheapest city for iced matcha at £4.17, Coventry most expensive at £5.35. The average price across 18 cities is £4.57, totalling £238 per year for weekly purchases. Updraft founder advises comparing prices and using loyalty schemes to save. (London, UK)

• Wed, 3 Jun – Roast colour is the strongest predictor of coffee flavour, according to SCA’s Coffee Decoded. During roasting, Maillard reactions create melanoidins, which produce malty, nutty flavours and body. The article notes that darker brown equals more melanoidins, and roast colour guides expectations of strength and bitterness. (Irvine, California, US)

• Wed, 3 Jun – Coffee concentrate market to reach US$5.9bn by 2035. Rising demand for premium, convenient RTD products and the expansion of café culture drive growth. Retail holds 71% of distribution, and East Asia leads regional growth. (Newark, Delaware, US)

• Thu, 4 Jun – Coffee modifies gut bacteria to influence mood and memory, study finds. Both caffeinated and decaf versions offer distinct benefits: caffeinated reduces anxiety and inflammatory proteins, while decaf improves sleep and memory. (Cork, Ireland)

1. Fri, 5 Jun – Hidden water and limescale costs push UK hospitality to breaking point, study says. New data from BRITA shows that 82% of businesses lose service time to water issues, 70% say unreliable equipment costs them staff, and 57% warn that unplanned downtime damages long-term reputation. (London, UK)

• Fri, 5 Jun – New report from TechnoServe finds timely investment can make a critical difference in the livelihoods of millions of smallholder coffee producers. Benchmarking Coffee Production and Climate Risk examines ten of the world’s most important coffee-producing countries and finds that all face growing exposure to climate stress. Producers in Latin America and Indonesia are some of the worst affected, contending with rising heat and unpredictable water availability. East African origins, including Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania, are less exposed to the worst climate projections, but even modest shocks are difficult to absorb. (Vienna, Austria)

Events & competitions

• Mon, 1 Jun – Liverpool Coffee Festival returns for third edition, showcasing over 300 coffees. The two-day event features a Tasting Lab and a latte art competition. Three local roasters also teamed up to create a naturally processed Pink Bourbon coffee from producer Luis Anibal Calderon. (Liverpool, UK)

• Tue, 2 Jun – Peruvian AeroPress Championship set for 30 August. The event will take place at Festival Cafesazo Peruano. Competitors can register early. (Lima, Peru)

• Wed, 3 Jun – MIFB 2026 to host Malaysia Coffee Championship in July. The trade fair runs 15-17 July at KLCC, co-located with Malaysia Café Expo and MyFoodTech. MNCC will crown four champions to represent Malaysia at the World Coffee Championships. (Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia)

• Wed, 3 Jun – Los Santos region sweep Costa Rica Cup of Excellence 2026 categories. Río Blanco farm won Washed with 91.36 points, while Las Nubes took Honey/Natural with 91.06, and Las Margaritas Veintiséis topped Experimental with 91.06. The auction will take place on 9 July. (San José, Costa Rica)

• Thu, 4 Jun – Singapore National Coffee Championship 2026 returns 15-17 July at Sands Expo. 67 competitors will compete across Barista, Brewers Cup, Latte Art, and Cup Tasters Championships. (Singapore)

• Thu, 4 Jun – Aillio returns with staff‑free community booth at Chicago CoffeeFest on 12 & 13 June. Users of the Bullet roaster will run the space, share real‑world feedback, and host live roasting sessions. No Aillio staff will be present, repeating a model tested in at New York CoffeeFest. (Chicago, Illinois, US)

• Fri, 5 Jun – Hong Kong’s Hasting Ng crowned DaVinci Gourmet Barista Craft champion. The global final at World of Coffee Bangkok saw Ng beat Yasmim Rodrigues Sarandy da Silva (Brazil) and Çetin Alpay Başkan (Türkiye). His winning drinks included a non-alcoholic mulled wine and a mango sticky rice espresso homage. (Hong Kong, China)

• Fri, 5 Jun – Coffee Barometer 2026 webinar will discuss two decades of industry sustainability efforts on 11 June. The 90‑minute session features author Sjoerd Panhuysen, Kenneth Barigye, Ric Rhinehart, and ICO’s Hannelore Beerlandt. (Amsterdam, Netherlands)

Here are a few coffee news stories from previous weeks that you might find interesting. Take a look:

• Mon, 4 May – Coffein Compagnie doubles decaf production capacity. The Bremen-based company cites rising global demand for high‑quality decaf as the reason for the expansion. The brand says its water‑based Hanseatic Process method uses only pure water, preserving each coffee’s original character and traceability. (Bremen, Germany)

• Wed, 27 May – Coffee industry stakeholders complete ILO diploma on living wages in Colombia. The 100‑hour RURALIA programme trained over 30 participants from the coffee, banana, and palm oil sectors to strengthen social dialogue for more equitable agricultural supply chains. (Bogotá, Colombia)

• Thu, 28 May – Starbucks Smart Lounge debuts in Latin America with Santiago coffeehouse. Located in the financial district, the two‑floor store offers reservable workspaces, private meeting rooms, and communal tables. The format first launched in Japan in 2020. (Santiago, Chile)

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