Coffee News Recap, 3 Jan: Market analysts predict US $4/lb arabica futures in 2025, coffee consumption linked to improved gut health & other stories

Every Friday, Perfect Daily Grind rounds up the top coffee industry news from the week. 

Editor’s note

The coffee industry is expected to face more challenges in 2025. Although coffee futures ended December 2024 at a low, several market analysts have predicted that lower-than-expected Brazilian harvests could push arabica futures over US $4/lb this year.

The situation would be unprecedented for green coffee traders – who are already struggling with rising interest rates and shrinking profit margins – and roasters. Ultimately, an increasingly volatile market would drive the ongoing trend of consolidation, allowing smaller businesses to stay afloat and larger players to secure more market share.

Entering the new year, many people will inevitably shift their focus to fitness and wellbeing. Gut health has been a growing wellness trend in recent years, and coffee could become the latest product to enter the burgeoning market.

A new study published in Nature Microbiology found that the Lawsonibacter saccharolytic bacterium, which plays a vital role in gut health, is more prevalent in the digestive system of coffee drinkers. This could potentially provide several benefits, including a healthier immune system.

As the coffee sector is set to become even more competitive in the coming years, brands are looking for new ways to stand out. Diversifying into the functional coffee segment – with a particular focus on gut health – could prove to be an effective strategy for capturing more market share.

Top stories of the week

• Mon, 30 Dec – Starbucks Workers United claim staff went on strike at 300 stores over the holiday season. The union, which represents about 10,000 Starbucks workers, said the strike was to bargain for fairer working conditions. The coffee chain reported that only 60 stores across the US closed due to strike action over the holiday period. (Seattle, Washington, US)

• Tue, 31 Dec – Dunkin’ partners with US singer-songwriter Sabrina Carpenter for new signature drink. The “Shake That Ess” ad campaign introduced the limited-edition oat milk-based Sabrina’s Brown Sugar Shakin’ Espresso drink, which is hand-shaken by baristas to order. (Boston, Massachusetts, US)

• Wed, 1 Jan – Market analysts predict coffee futures to reach over US $4/lb in 2025. Coffee futures ended December at a low amid light trading during the holidays. Brazil’s rainfall replenished soil moisture, while certified arabica stocks hit a 2.5-year high. Industry analysts predict a global supply deficit in 2025, potentially pushing prices higher. (New York City, New York, US)

• Wed, 1 Jan – Coffee consumption linked to improved gut health in new study. Research published in Nature Microbiology links coffee consumption to increased levels of Lawsonibacter asaccharolyticus, a bacterium crucial for gut health. Researchers analysed data from over 76,000 participants and found 4.5 to 8 times more microbes in coffee drinkers, irrespective of caffeine content, highlighting coffee’s impact on the microbiome. (London, UK)

Industry news

• Mon, 30 Dec – Austria’s Aïda expands internationally with debut in Slovakia. The 110-year-old Viennese bakery-café chain opened a store in Bratislava, Slovakia, marking its third international expansion in 2024. This follows recent openings in Germany and Saudi Arabia, continuing its global growth. (Vienna, Austria)

• Tue, 31 Dec – Scooter’s Coffee named the No.2 franchise of 2024 by Entrepreneur Magazine. The chain stands out for its drive-thru kiosks and franchise model, now with over 840 locations in 30 states. Founded in 1998, the brand strives to be the leading drive-thru coffee franchise in the US. (Bellevue, Nebraska, US)

• Tue, 31 Dec – Bosqar acquires €100 million majority stake in Croatian bakery-café business. Croatia’s Bosqar purchased a 67% stake in bakery-café chain Mlinar, with plans to boost regional expansion and exports. Former majority owner MidEuropa Partners retains a minority stake, having nearly doubled Mlinar’s revenues during its tenure. (Zagreb, Croatia)

• Tue, 31 Dec – Hangar Coffee Roasters partners with Paragon Network to improve FBO coffee offerings. Hangar Coffee Roasters has partnered with the Paragon Network to deliver premium, aviation-focused coffee solutions for Fixed-Base Operators (FBOs). (Cypress, Texas, US)

• Tue, 31 Dec – India’s out-of-home coffee market to hit US $3.2 billion by 2028. The market is expected to grow at a 15 to 20% CAGR, with the premium segment driving growth at 20 to 25% CAGR. The mid-price range is poised for rapid expansion at 35 to 40% CAGR, highlighting demand for specialty coffee. Challenges include supply chain issues and securing prime locations. (Bengaluru, India)

• Wed, 1 Jan – MAME Specialty Coffee announces its expansion to Tokyo. After years of consideration, the Swiss-based specialty coffee roaster is set to open its first Japanese location in spring 2025. (Zurich, Switzerland)

• Thu, 2 Jan – Jazean opens a second experience centre in AlUla, highlighting Saudi coffee culture. Saudi Coffee Company (SCC) has opened its second Jazean Experience Center in AlUla’s Old Town, offering visitors a curated experience of Saudi coffee traditions. The centre showcases coffee cultivation and roasting and serves Jazean’s specialty coffees alongside scenic views of AlUla’s landscape. (AlUla, Saudi Arabia)

• Thu, 2 Jan – Alliance for Coffee Excellence 2025 membership opens. The membership levels include Benefactor, offering all CoE and National Winner sample sets; Allied, with 3 sample sets; and Community, offering flexibility for COE sample sets. (Houston, Texas, US)

New launch

• Mon, 30 Dec – OXXO convenience store chain introduces Andatti coffee brand in Brazil. OXXO has launched its Andatti coffee brand across 600 stores in Brazil, making it one of the largest non-specialist coffee operators in the country. The brand, initially launched in Mexico in 2005, sources coffee from local regions and is also available in Colombia, Chile, and Peru. (São Paulo, Brazil)

• Tue, 31 Dec – Keurig launches K-Cycle at-home recycling programme. K-Cycle At Home is a mail-back programme for consumers in communities without local K-Cup pod recycling options. Participants can purchase a prepaid bag, collect used pods, and send them for recycling. This initiative builds on Keurig Dr Pepper’s ongoing efforts to support a circular economy. (Burlington, Massachusetts, US)

• Tue, 31 Dec – La Marzocco unveils Tour de Coffee cycling event in Ethiopia. In partnership with the Oromia Tourism Commission, the event will showcase Ethiopia’s coffee heritage through cycling tours, coffee tastings, cultural performances, and a screening of The Rise of Espresso. (Jima, Ethiopia)

• Thu, 2 Jan – Avercasso launches lightweight AI-driven sorter designed for nano roasters. The company says its new CS-Lite sorts green coffee beans with 99% accuracy, removing defects like insect damage, mould, and foreign objects. Its lightweight build, mobile app integration, and real-time tracking ensure ease of use and high-quality results. (Taipei, Taiwan)

Trade & production

• Mon, 30 Dec – Cecafé expresses concern over the bill removing guaranteed affordability of Brazil’s ports. Cecafé and Logística Brasil raised concerns to Minister Silvio Costa Filho about the CEPORTOS draft bill, citing its potential to harm Brazil’s export competitiveness by removing price regulations for port users. Cecafé highlighted logistical issues causing a loss of R $2.754 billion in coffee exports and urged for solutions to mitigate the risks to exporters. (São Paulo, Brazil)

• Tue, 31 Dec – Guatemala exported over 3 million 60kg coffee bags in 2024. The exports generated US $898 million in revenue. Coffee remains the country’s second-largest agricultural export, employing over 125,000 families. Key markets include North America (52.7%), Europe (25.1%), and Asia (19.8%). Anacafé mapped 376,019 hectares of coffee land, enhancing strategic planning and technological integration. (Guatemala City, Guatemala)

Research

• Tue, 31 Dec – Coffee consumption linked to a boost in cognitive performance in stroke-prone patients. A study in the Journal of the American Heart Association suggests regular coffee consumption may improve cognitive performance in elderly patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Higher intake showed a correlation with reduced cognitive decline and inflammation. Further research is needed to confirm these findings. (New York City, New York, US)

• Fri, 3 Jan – New report highlights 55% of leading US coffee chain locations now offer fair pricing for plant milks. The State of the Surcharge report aims to address pricing inconsistencies and provide fairer options for consumers, especially those who are lactose intolerant. The move reflects broader trends in consumer preferences and industry practices.

Events & competitions

• Thu, 2 Jan – London Coffee Festival announces guest MCs and judges for 2025 Coffee Masters. The 2024 UK Barista Champion Roosa Jalonen joins Matt Cowie as MCs for this year’s competition. Guest judges will include Anne Lunnel, Claire Wallace, Davide Orazi, and Ratislav Kasar. (London, UK)

• Thu, 2 Jan – MICE2025 introduces the Coffee Industry Heroes Awards. The awards scheme is now open for nominations, celebrating outstanding professionals in three categories: Community Champion, Next-Gen Talent, and Lifetime Achievement. Final nominations are due by Friday 14 February. Winners will be revealed at the MICE afterparty on 22 March. (Melbourne, Australia)

• Fri, 3 Jan – SIGEP 2025 forms strategic partnership with UCIMAC to focus on technological innovation in coffee. The event, which will run from 18 to 22 January 2025, will spotlight tech innovation in numerous food and beverage industries. For coffee professionals, the event will focus on packaging and fully-automatic machines. (Rimini, Italy)

Here are a few coffee news stories from previous weeks that you might find interesting. Take a look:

• Fri, 27 Dec – Starbucks faces setback in appeal over baristas’ dismissal in NLRB ruling. A federal appeals court upheld a ruling that Starbucks violated labour laws by firing two Philadelphia baristas for union organising. The court supported reinstatement with back pay but rejected covering additional expenses. Broader NLRB enforcement challenges were dismissed. (Seattle, Washington, US)

• Fri, 27 Dec – Tim Hortons opens first Signature store in Malaysia. The Canadian coffee chain launched its premium Signature store concept in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, offering artisanal food, single origin Kyoto-style drip, Chemex, and V60 options. Partnering with Marubeni Growth Capital Asia, Tim Hortons plans 100 outlets in Malaysia by 2025. (Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia)

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Want to keep up with current affairs in the coffee industry? Check out last week’s coffee news stories and make sure to read the latest Coffee Intelligence News & Opinion piece on how the confirmed EUDR delay buys the coffee industry more time to comply.